Calgary prices for repeat home sales continue to climb
Up 5.9% in July from last year
CALGARY — Prices for repeat home sales in Calgary continued to climb in July, registering the second highest year-over-year hike in the country, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index.
The index, released on Wednesday, showed Calgary prices rose by 5.9 per cent from July 2012. Only Hamilton had a bigger increase at 6.7 per cent.
“As one of the fastest growing urban areas in North America, Calgary also has one of the hottest real estate markets,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial. “Prices for both new and existing homes are on the rise again. And judging from some other measurements of real estate activity, the market could be tilting further in favour of the seller.
“The ratio of home sales to new listings gives a good read on the overall balance in the residential market. A ratio of 0.5 means that for every home that is sold, two other homes are put on to the market. In Calgary, the most recent ratio of sales to listings is 0.83 — meaning that almost as many homes are being sold as new or existing ones are listed.”
Comparing July of 2013 to the same month in the previous two years, it is clear that the city’s real estate market has heated up, added Hirsch.
“In July 2011, the sales-to-new listing ratio was a balanced 0.56; in July 2012 it had ramped up to 0.73,” he said. “But last month, the ratio had climbed to one of the highest readings in recent years. And given that the city’s population is expanding rapidly with the inflow of interprovincial and international migrants, either more inventory of homes will have to be brought onto the market — or else prices can be expected to climb even more.”
The composite index of 11 centres in Canada saw a yearly hike of 1.9 per cent to an all-time high in July, as did the indexes of four of the 11 metropolitan markets covered by the composite index: Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau and Quebec City.
Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist with the National Bank of Canada, said by way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 12.1 per cent from a year earlier in May.
In Canada, the price rise over the 12 months ending in July exceeded the cross-country average in six of the 11 markets: Hamilton, Calgary, Quebec City (3.8 per cent), Edmonton (3.5 per cent), Toronto (3.4 per cent) and Winnipeg (3.2 per cent). It lagged the average in Halifax (1.5 per cent), Montreal (1.1 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.9 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier for a fifth straight month in Victoria (4.0 per cent) and for a 12th straight month in Vancouver (2.0 per cent).
The July composite index was up 0.7 per cent from June.
“Though this increase may seem substantial, it is somewhat below the seasonal norm. Over the last 12 years, the average July gain has been 1.0 per cent,” said Pinsonneault.
In July, prices were up from the month before in nine of the 11 markets surveyed. The increase exceeded the national average in four markets: Victoria (2.6 per cent), Hamilton (1.8 per cent), Toronto (1.3 per cent) and Edmonton (0.8 per cent). It lagged the average in Calgary (0.5 per cent) and in Vancouver, Ottawa-Gatineau and Quebec City (0.3 per cent). In Montreal prices were flat from the month before. In Winnipeg (0.4 per cent) and Halifax (0.6 per cent), prices were down on the month.
The index, released on Wednesday, showed Calgary prices rose by 5.9 per cent from July 2012. Only Hamilton had a bigger increase at 6.7 per cent.
“As one of the fastest growing urban areas in North America, Calgary also has one of the hottest real estate markets,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial. “Prices for both new and existing homes are on the rise again. And judging from some other measurements of real estate activity, the market could be tilting further in favour of the seller.
“The ratio of home sales to new listings gives a good read on the overall balance in the residential market. A ratio of 0.5 means that for every home that is sold, two other homes are put on to the market. In Calgary, the most recent ratio of sales to listings is 0.83 — meaning that almost as many homes are being sold as new or existing ones are listed.”
Comparing July of 2013 to the same month in the previous two years, it is clear that the city’s real estate market has heated up, added Hirsch.
“In July 2011, the sales-to-new listing ratio was a balanced 0.56; in July 2012 it had ramped up to 0.73,” he said. “But last month, the ratio had climbed to one of the highest readings in recent years. And given that the city’s population is expanding rapidly with the inflow of interprovincial and international migrants, either more inventory of homes will have to be brought onto the market — or else prices can be expected to climb even more.”
The composite index of 11 centres in Canada saw a yearly hike of 1.9 per cent to an all-time high in July, as did the indexes of four of the 11 metropolitan markets covered by the composite index: Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa-Gatineau and Quebec City.
Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist with the National Bank of Canada, said by way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 12.1 per cent from a year earlier in May.
In Canada, the price rise over the 12 months ending in July exceeded the cross-country average in six of the 11 markets: Hamilton, Calgary, Quebec City (3.8 per cent), Edmonton (3.5 per cent), Toronto (3.4 per cent) and Winnipeg (3.2 per cent). It lagged the average in Halifax (1.5 per cent), Montreal (1.1 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.9 per cent). Prices were down from a year earlier for a fifth straight month in Victoria (4.0 per cent) and for a 12th straight month in Vancouver (2.0 per cent).
The July composite index was up 0.7 per cent from June.
“Though this increase may seem substantial, it is somewhat below the seasonal norm. Over the last 12 years, the average July gain has been 1.0 per cent,” said Pinsonneault.
In July, prices were up from the month before in nine of the 11 markets surveyed. The increase exceeded the national average in four markets: Victoria (2.6 per cent), Hamilton (1.8 per cent), Toronto (1.3 per cent) and Edmonton (0.8 per cent). It lagged the average in Calgary (0.5 per cent) and in Vancouver, Ottawa-Gatineau and Quebec City (0.3 per cent). In Montreal prices were flat from the month before. In Winnipeg (0.4 per cent) and Halifax (0.6 per cent), prices were down on the month.
The Teranet — National Bank House Price Index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
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mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
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