Calgary an economic growth leader in 2014
Forecast 4.1% Real GDP hike
Calgary is expected to lead the country in economic growth in 2014.
Photograph by: Dean Bicknell , Calgary Herald
CALGARY - Calgary will lead all metropolitan centres in Canada with 4.1 per cent Real GDP growth in 2014, says a new report released Wednesday by TD Economics.
The report said the recent floods in Southern Alberta will contribute to a slowdown in Calgary’s GDP growth in the first half of 2013.
But losses “ought to be recouped heading into the second half of the year and 2014,” said the report.
It said Calgary should be the only census metropolitan area in Canada to record economic growth of over four per cent next year.
“While the June floods derailed things a bit, Calgary’s fundamentals are good,” said Ben Brunnen, a Calgary economic consultant and former chief economist at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “Low unemployment, tight commercial vacancy rates, and strong population growth will keep the economy humming into 2014.
“The biggest challenges we experience in 2014 will likely be growth-related. Rising mortgage rates and low vacancy rates will reduce housing affordability, while strong inter-provincial migration could strain our municipal infrastructure and services. Labour shortages in the construction trades is another area to watch, as flood rebuilding efforts and strong commercial construction activity could lead to higher costs and potentially reduce the quality of the work.”
The TD report is forecasting economic growth of 2.5 per cent for the country in 2014.
For this year, TD Economics said St. John’s will lead the country with 4.0 per cent growth followed by Calgary at 3.2 per cent. Nationwide, economic growth is expected to be 1.8 per cent.
“After a bit of a mild pull-back in growth this year, Calgary and the rest of Alberta should see momentum picking up again in 2014,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial. “Stronger energy prices and a continued steady inflow of job-seekers into the province will lift construction spending and retail sales. The only danger remains the job market overheating somewhat, driving wage costs for employers higher.”
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
The report said the recent floods in Southern Alberta will contribute to a slowdown in Calgary’s GDP growth in the first half of 2013.
But losses “ought to be recouped heading into the second half of the year and 2014,” said the report.
It said Calgary should be the only census metropolitan area in Canada to record economic growth of over four per cent next year.
“While the June floods derailed things a bit, Calgary’s fundamentals are good,” said Ben Brunnen, a Calgary economic consultant and former chief economist at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce. “Low unemployment, tight commercial vacancy rates, and strong population growth will keep the economy humming into 2014.
“The biggest challenges we experience in 2014 will likely be growth-related. Rising mortgage rates and low vacancy rates will reduce housing affordability, while strong inter-provincial migration could strain our municipal infrastructure and services. Labour shortages in the construction trades is another area to watch, as flood rebuilding efforts and strong commercial construction activity could lead to higher costs and potentially reduce the quality of the work.”
The TD report is forecasting economic growth of 2.5 per cent for the country in 2014.
For this year, TD Economics said St. John’s will lead the country with 4.0 per cent growth followed by Calgary at 3.2 per cent. Nationwide, economic growth is expected to be 1.8 per cent.
“After a bit of a mild pull-back in growth this year, Calgary and the rest of Alberta should see momentum picking up again in 2014,” said Todd Hirsch, chief economist at ATB Financial. “Stronger energy prices and a continued steady inflow of job-seekers into the province will lift construction spending and retail sales. The only danger remains the job market overheating somewhat, driving wage costs for employers higher.”
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com
Twitter.com/MTone123
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