Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Alberta Leads Country in First-Time Homebuyers

Alberta has the highest rate of first-time homebuyers in the country, according to a new report released Tuesday by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals.
The report, A Profile of Home Buying in Canada, found that 55 per cent of Alberta homes purchased in the past 27 months were by first-time buyers compared with the national average of 45 per cent.
The report said the Alberta number is due to migration patterns.
“Alberta sees large inflows of young adults looking for work opportunities,” it said.
Of the 75,000 homes sold in Alberta during that period, 40,000 were by first-time buyers, 15,000 were second-time buyers, and 20,000 were subsequent purchases.
In Canada, first-time buyers numbered 280,000 of the 620,000 sold followed by 130,000 second-time buyers and 210,000 subsequent purchases.
The breakdown in Alberta for the types of homes sold were: 45,000, detached; 10,000, semi-detached; 15,000, condo apartment; and 5,000, other.
In the province, the highest percentage of home sales, at 18 per cent, fell in the price range of $400,000 to $449,000.
Jim Murphy, president and chief executive of the association, said first-time homebuyers “are some of the most engaged, enthusiastic and well-researched groups in the market.”
Most of them are also between 25 and 34 years old.
“One of the reasons that Alberta has a higher first-time buyers percentage is there’s obviously just a lot of younger people looking for work and moving to Alberta since 2013 and so then picked up in the housing market,” said Murphy. “Overall, Alberta’s population is younger than the national average. Overall, Alberta’s population has been growing certainly up until the end of 2014 at a rate much higher than the national average … Those things lead you to a much higher first-time buyers’ market. A lot of it driven by just jobs, employment opportunity.”
That opportunity also presented itself in higher-paying jobs.
“The majority of jobs in Canada until the end of 2014 were created in Alberta,” added Murphy.
According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, there were 8,013 MLS sales in the city this year up until the end of May. The following are the number of sales in the lower price ranges — 181, $100,000-$199,999; 1,215, $200,000-$299,999; 895, $300,000-$349,999; 1,135, $350,000-$399,999; and 1,120, $400,000-$449,999.
A total of 4,546 MLS transactions this year have been under $450,000, representing almost 57 per cent of all the sale in the city.
“Entry level priced homes are a hot commodity and in a seller’s market. For example, there is only a 0.7 month supply of detached homes available under $400,000 but 6.7 months of inventory for detached homes priced above $800,000,” said Mike Fotiou, associate broker with First Place Realty.
mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Plenty of Plankton and Four Other Reasons Why Canada's Housing Market Won't Crash



Postmedia NewsHome prices are up 71 per cent nationwide over the past decade, prompting organizations from the International Monetary Fund to the Bank of Canada to label the market overvalued.

Stuart Levings, head of Genworth MI Canada Inc., the country’s largest private mortgage insurer, has a message for U.S. investors: red hot housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver aren’t about to plummet.

Canada’s reputation as a safe country to live and bank is luring buyers from abroad and far from creating a bubble, it may mean there isn’t enough housing to go around. Read on
The chief executive officer has his work cut out for him. Figures Tuesday showed Vancouver prices soared 9.4 per cent in May from a year ago and the average price of a detached home reached a record $1,417,409. Toronto is not far behind with the average price for a detached home hitting$1,115,120, an 18.2 per cent increase from a year ago.
Prices are up 71 per cent nationwide over the past decade, prompting organizations from the International Monetary Fund to the Bank of Canada to label the market overvalued, and investors such as Steve Eisman, of Neuberger Berman Group, to have shorted housing stocks.
Levings maintains the market has solid underpinnings and is traveling to the U.S. to make his case. Here’s his argument:

1) The Canadian Real Estate Ocean is Full of Plankton

“We look at the housing market like a food chain,” Levings said in an interview at Bloomberg’s office in Toronto May 28. “The first-time homebuyers are really the plankton. And if you don’t have plankton in the ocean, you’re going to eventually starve out even the big whales and the sharks. You need that first time homebuyer to buy that home so the next person can move out to buy their own home.”
The demand comes from millennials and the roughly 250,000 annual immigrants buying their first property, according to Levings.
“There is strong demand in this country and there will always be,” Levings said. “Why? Simply because of our immigration policy. We bring in first-time buyer pipelines through our immigration policy. They are great future first-time homebuyers that become plankton.”

 

2) Mortgage Regulations Worked

The federal government has introduced several mortgage rules since 2008 to take the froth off heady real estate markets. Shorter amortizations and higher down payments have kept the riskiest of buyers out of the market, Levings said. Average credit scores of Genworth customers remained steady at a high 737 points.
The trick is for the government to keep this balance and avoid making further changes that will entirely squeeze out first-time homebuyers and poison the food chain, Levings said.
Outside Vancouver and Toronto, markets have cooled.
“We’ve squeezed the first-time homebuyers down into a small group who are qualified, good-quality borrowers,” he said.